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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly serves as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or just the greatest upset.

But the current competition is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime also-rans rising together. Under an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's facing five other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a typical season!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still